S. Spencer Brown and Dr. Danny Damron, Kennedy International Center
The Scottish National Party has seen growth and decline more than once since its founding in 1937. The party has struggled in several ways, lacking legitimacy, policy, and electoral opportunities. Since the inception of the Scottish Parliament in 1999, the SNP has found hope for more sustained success and publicity. Seven years later support for the SNP, and along with it Scottish nationalism finally seems to be increasing. The intent of my research was to determine a cause of increased SNP support and hopefully link that cause to a broader theoretical explanation. Several factors are present in Scotland that appear to cause dissatisfaction with the Scottish and UK governments, including discrepancies in average GNP per capita, health standards, and life expectancy. However, all of these factors were present prior to 1999, and the gap between Scotland and the rest of the UK has remained fairly constant since that time. Therefore, I predict that the shift toward the SNP is caused by a change in perception concerning the above-mentioned discrepancies, rather than worsening conditions. The efforts of the SNP to publicize these issues and to change Scots’ perceptions of their own situation has benefited the party, and has made its success possible.
The first step of the research was to determine if support for the SNP and Scottish nationalism are actually increasing. This task proved more difficult than was expected due to a lack of credible poll data. Most of my information was provided by the SNP, which automatically makes it suspect. However, several independent polls indicate an increase in SNP support. MORI, a reputable independent polling agency in Scotland put the SNP ahead of Labour by 2% in both the constituency and regional votes if Scottish Parliamentary elections were held the day the poll was released (June 2006). YouGov, another Scottish polling agency asked a similar question in September 2006 and found the SNP ahead, again by 2% in the regional vote and only slightly behind in the constituency vote. Additionally, there has been an increase in SNP by-election victories since the 2003 general elections. The SNP has won more by-elections than any other party in that period. These poll results are the most favorable that the SNP has seen in a long time, and SNP supporters are quick to point out that if these results carry over to the general elections in 2007, the SNP will be able to unseat the Labour majority in the Scottish Parliament. Additional data also shows an increase in nationalism and support for Scottish independence. The YouGov survey showed 44% support for independence, a result significantly higher than the typical 25-30% that has been polled in the last ten years. There is clear evidence of a shift in support toward the Scottish National Party, however the largest test for the SNP will be the 2007 general election. The results of that election will be clear evidence of a shift in support for the SNP, if one exists.
Since nationalist support appears to be increasing, the next step is to examine possible causes for that support. This step is where my research ran into the most trouble. Scottish polling firms do not provide the data necessary to determine why people are leaving other parties to support the SNP. The lack of polling data provides a major roadblock to further research about voter behavior in Scotland, and also hampered my research. Because I had no other means of determining causes for the shift of support to the SNP, I turned to qualitative sources. Fortunately I was able to gather a lot of information from contacts that I had made during my internship at the Scottish Parliament. Again, I faced the challenge of biased opinions from members of different parties. However, nearly everyone I interviewed conceded that the Scottish Parliament has given the SNP credibility and a venue to make their views and ideas heard. The SNP members that I interviewed were quick to point out instances where their policies are vastly different from any of the other major parties. Though the primary goal of the SNP is Scottish independence, they have focused much of their attention on gaining more control for the Scottish Parliament in the areas of economics and healthcare reform, two of the areas that Scotland has struggled in under the current system. It appears that increased publicity for the SNP, due to its extensive participation in the Scottish Parliament, combined with aggressive policies to move away from the status quo and to improve Scotland’s standing in the UK have been primary factors in the shift in support toward the SNP. At present these observations are speculative. More extensive polling that ask questions to determine the cause of voter behavior would be needed to further determine what is making people shift their support to the SNP.
Though the notion of Scots’ changing their perspectives of the disparity between Scotland and England is speculative and needs to be researched more, the idea is significant. The SNP is working hard to change perspectives and to call to attention the poor job that Labour in Scotland and at Westminster have done. Since the Labour party is relatively unionist and pro-status quo, the tactics of the SNP seem to be drawing many Scots to the cause of independence. If this is really the case, it is theoretically significant. A long respected theory on the rise of subnational movements, called Internal Colonialism, holds that subnationalist movements gain support because of state-lead economic exploitation of a particular region—essentially making a colony within the state’s borders. Many scholars have dismissed this theory because, they believe, it does not hold true for more affluent subnationalist groups like the Scots. However, these scholars do not take into account the perception of subnationalist groups as to their situation compared to the rest of the state, only the actually economic exploitation. If there exists a growing perception of dissatisfaction with the disparity between Scotland and the rest of the UK, this theory will apply in the case of Scotland. As stated before, more research needs to be done to determine if there has actually been a change in perception.
Though this research is incomplete, and may not ever reach a conclusion, it has given me some great opportunities. My internship in Scotland was very valuable to me. Additionally, I was able to present my research and theoretical speculations at the 2006 Rocky Mountain European Scholars Consortium in October. As Scottish polling companies become more sophisticated, one could expect better results in this type of research. The 2007 Scottish Parliamentary elections will also yield valuable data to determine if the predicted shift in support toward the SNP will actually occur.